Our modeling effort aims to predict future trends in adolescent obesity and assess the potential impact of using low-calorie sugar substitutes in mitigating this issue. By analyzing historical data on obesity rates, we seek to understand how the prevalence of adolescent obesity may evolve in the coming decades. This model will help us evaluate whether introducing low-calorie sugars, like D-tagatose, could effectively slow the rising rates of obesity among adolescents. To achieve this, we built a model based on past trends to project future scenarios and explore the effectiveness of dietary interventions in curbing obesity.

- Model Assumptions -

We gathered global adolescent obesity prevalence data from the World Obesity Federation (https://www.worldobesity.org/) and observed that the prevalence of adolescent obesity has followed an exponential growth trend, given its consistent increase over the past few decades.
While we acknowledge that external factors, such as changes in diet, physical activity, public health interventions, and socioeconomic conditions, may influence the rate of growth, these factors are challenging to predict. Therefore, we assume that these conditions will remain unchanged in the future.

- Exponential Growth Model -

The exponential growth model can be expressed as:

\( P(t) = P_0 \cdot e^{rt} \)

Where:

P(t) is the predicted prevalence of obesity at time t years from now.
P0 is the current prevalence of obesity.
r is the growth rate (assumed constant in this model).
t is the time in years from the current year.
e is the base of the natural logarithm (approximately 2.718).

- Estimating the Growth Rate -

The growth rate rrr can be estimated from historical data. Suppose we know that the prevalence of adolescent obesity worldwide increased from 4% in 1990 to approximately 12.8% in 2022. We can calculate rrr as follows:

\(r = \frac{\ln(P_{2022} / P_{1990})}{t}\)

Substituting the values:

\( r = \frac{\ln(12.8 / 4)}{2022 - 1990} \approx \frac{\ln(3.2)}{32} \approx \frac{1.163}{32} \approx 0.0363 \text{ per year} \)

- Predicting Future Prevalence -

Using the estimated growth rate r. We can now predict the prevalence for the next 26 years (from 2024 to 2050).

\( P(26) = 12.8 \cdot e^{0.0363 \times 26} \)

Calculating the exponent:

\( P(26) \approx 12.8 \cdot e^{0.0363 \times 26} \approx 32.9\% \)

Thus, if current trends continue, the model suggests that the world prevalence of adolescent obesity could rise to approximately 32.9% by 2050.
We also calculated the adolescent obesity in China. The calculated growth rate is approximately 0.0402 per year. Based on this growth rate, the predicted adolescent obesity rate in China for the year 2050 would be around 56.6%.

- Prediction of low-calorie sugar substitutes effect on obesity rates growth -

If low-calorie sugar substitutes were used effectively to reduce the growth rate of adolescent obesity in China, we could explore the impact of reducing the growth rate by 25%, 50%, and 75%. The figure illustrates how the predicted adolescent obesity rates would change from 2024 to 2050 under different scenarios compared to the original growth rate.

These scenarios suggest that even modest reductions in the growth rate of obesity can lead to substantial decreases in future obesity prevalence. A 75% reduction could nearly stabilize the rates, demonstrating the potential effectiveness of low-calorie sugar substitutes in mitigating the adolescent obesity epidemic in China. Based on the modeling results, D-tagatose, as a low-calorie sugar substitute, shows significant potential for positively impacting public health by mitigating the rising rates of adolescent obesity. The scenarios presented indicate that even modest reductions in the growth rate of obesity can lead to substantial decreases in future obesity prevalence.

- Conclusion -

Given these findings, D-tagatose has a promising future as part of dietary interventions aimed at reducing obesity rates. Its benefits as a low-calorie sweetener with minimal impact on blood sugar levels make it an ideal alternative for addressing the health concerns related to excessive sugar intake, particularly among adolescents. The potential for widespread adoption in food and beverage industries, combined with its health benefits, suggests that D-tagatose could play a crucial role in combating the global obesity epidemic.
Furthermore, with increasing consumer awareness and demand for healthier alternatives, D-tagatose is well-positioned to gain market traction and become a popular choice for health-conscious individuals and those managing metabolic conditions. Thus, the outlook for D-tagatose as a sugar substitute appears highly favorable, with opportunities for growth in both domestic and international markets.

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⚪ Overview

⚪ Model Assumptions

⚪ Exponential Growth Model

⚪ Estimating the Growth Rate

⚪ Predicting Future Prevalence

⚪ Prediction of low-calorie sugar substitutes effect on obesity rates growth

⚪ Conclusion