To better understand the history of AMR development and antimicrobial research we talked to Claas Kirchhelle who is a well-known historian of ‘drugs and bugs’. Currently an Associate Research Professor at INSERM, Claas has a special focus on the history of antimicrobial resistance, vaccination policies, and environmental health. His interdisciplinary approach brings together historical analysis with insights from microbiology, policy, and ethics, offering a unique perspective on the challenges of modern healthcare. Discussing the current state of antimicrobial research with Claas made us wonder how one can contribute to combating the AMR crisis in the real world. Especially his take on big pharma companies lacking interest in novel antimicrobials despite constant flow of innovations. This is because antimicrobials don’t fit the established commercial scheme and struggle to compete with “blockbuster drugs” such as Ozempic and Keytruda or even conventional antibiotics. Also, Claas highlighted that the AMR crisis is a complex global problem and cannot be simply solved through the efforts of few countries, as long as the largest consumers of antibiotics do not put appropriate regulations in place because AMR bacteria would still be able to rapidly spread in the globalised world of flights and international trade. Finally, we found it inspiring to discuss the future of antimicrobial research with Claas. He argued that the next generation of antimicrobials is more likely to come out of independent research projects and start-ups rather than from large pharmaceutical companies, offering hope for more innovative solutions in the fight against AMR.
As a chair of Microbiology at the Sir William School of Pathology at the University of Oxford, Kevin Foster had a lot to say about the prospects of our technology in the context of natural microbiomes. He drew our attention to the difference that we should expect between the laboratory conditions and naturally occurring biofilms. For instance, he pointed out that the efficiency of plasmid transfer may depend on the composition of a given microbiome, and these differences should be experimentally assessed. Also, he suggested we test our plasmid with cells that grow at different speed, as in gut microbiomes it is often the case that bacteria grow at significantly slower rate. Kevin concluded that, provided we can achieve strain specificity on the sequence level with Cas12a, the biggest challenge for our systems will be to sustain high enough rates of conjugation to outstrip pathogen growth, and so whether there will be enough cell-cell contact to reach all of the pathogen cells.
Katharina is a Live Sciences Investment Associate at the Oxford Science Enterprises. We had an opportunity to pitch our project to Katherina in search of feedback regarding how we should present it and potentially make it more commercialisable. We discussed market availability and competition and came to the conclusion that the livestock market might be the most attractive for our project. Meeting Katherina inspired us to conduct thoughtful market analysis to see in which sector OneRing might be best suited.
As our project progressed, in order to fully grasp the long term impact our project could have on the healthcare sector, we met with Nicole Stoesser. As a Consultant in Infection for the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, an NIHR Oxford Senior Research Fellow, and an Associate Professor in Infectious Diseases at the University of Oxford, Nicole was able to provide us with a full picture of the current state of AMR affairs both in the UK and globally. Understanding the current policies that regulate the prescription of antibiotics, especially last-resort antibiotics, helped us to realise the policy hurdles that may lie ahead for our project. Hearing Nicole’s opinions on the crisis of innovation in antimicrobial research was particularly telling, as was hearing about new government policy schemes that aim to incentivise pharmaceutical companies to develop antimicrobials. From a clinical perspective, we also appreciated Nicole’s ideas of potential use cases for OneRing, such as to prevent infection from urinary catheters, ventilators, and prothestic joints. Hearing Nicole’s concerns regarding the potential immune response that might be elicited from our OneRing solution led us to a key inflexion point: looking ahead, we now hope to carry out further research on the effects of stripping our host E.Coli of any surface proteins that could lead to an immune response.
Interested in understanding how efficacious OneRing might be in a biological system, we met with Craig MacLean, a professor of evolution and microbiology at the University of Oxford. Throughout our conversation, we began to see the many challenges that our system will face in the microbiome. Not only might our plasmid face anti-cas systems after successful conjugation, but there was also the chance recipient bacteria might expel our plasmid. Craig also pointed out that, due to the high copy number plasmid we had designed, the RP4 conjugation system, and the strong promoter, our host E. Coli would likely suffer from major fitness costs. Reaching a reflection point, we began to think about ways of mitigating these potential issues. One solution we decided upon was artificially upregulating glycolysis in our host E. Coli to mitigate fitness costs. Our conversation soon turned to the use of antibiotics in farming, and their many effects. During our interview, we began to understand pro-antibiotic use arguments, as Craig explained the use of growth-promoting antibiotics in the livestock industry can lead to a significant increase in meat yield from the same number of animals. Perhaps it was time to hone in on the issues of antibiotic use in the livestock industry…
In order to gain a better understanding of antimicrobial stewardship, and more broadly the use of antibiotics in the livestock industry, we met with Laura Higham, a Programme Manager & Veterinary Consultant for FAI Farms. Working with industry-leading companies such as KFC, M&S, MacDonalds, Nestle, and IKEA, FAI Farms helps to deliver positive change to animal-based production systems, especially in the context of reducing antibiotic use in global supply chains. Meeting with Laura thus exposed us to the urgent need to further decrease antibiotic use in the livestock industry, and the challenges farmers often face in doing so. During our meeting, we were able to delve into the economic costs of reducing antibiotic use, the effects antibiotic reduction can have on animal health, and current novel antimicrobials being used by farmers today. One of the main takeaways we enjoyed was the increasing role veterinarians play in the livestock industry, as farms continue to make the shift from routine antibiotic administration to targeted, veterinarian prescribed, antibiotic use.
With every passing year, the problem of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) casts a larger and larger shadow over the world’s public health. As countries across the world come to terms with the devastation that antimicrobial resistance is causing, and will continue to cause, our team understands the time sensitive nature of creating a novel solution to this devastating problem.
Utilising our team’s interdisciplinary skillset, we believe working towards commercialising our novel solution to AMR is crucial to helping prevent this looming global health crisis. To begin our journey of commercialisation, we have dedicate much of our time to understanding the current antimicrobial market, economic costs, competitors, and developing a business plan that can set us firm on the path of success.
In 2021, 1.14 million people died as a direct result of AMR. Without any further policy interventions, or new players in the market, global deaths are estimated to reach 39 million between 2025 and 2050 (Antibiotic resistance has claimed at least one million lives each year since 1990 | University of Oxford). By 2050, AMR could lead to 10 million deaths a year (Antimicrobial resistance: a global threat | UNEP - UN Environment Programme). Undoubtedly, there is a large gap in the market which needs to be addressed in order to save millions of lives each year.
In addition to use in the medical industry, antimicrobials are currently used widely for animal health, both in the livestock and veterinary industries. Looking to livestock especially, as international policy continues to place pressure on the livestock industry to decrease antibiotic use, those in the industry will have to look increasingly to other forms of antimicrobials.
To ensure the long term success of our start-up, we’ve identified the main stakeholders who will be using and purchasing our product. These include healthcare professionals, individuals suffering from bacterial infections, livestock farmers, and veterinarians.
In order to conduct our market analysis, we split our potential markets into two broad categories; Animal Health and Healthcare. This way, we could begin to understand the challenges that lie ahead in each sector, as well as the market that might be available to us in each general sector.
Despite often being overlooked in the conversation of antibiotics, the Global Animal Health Market, which includes both the veterinary and livestock industries, was estimated to be worth 58.66 bn USD in 2022. By 2028, the market size is projected to skyrocket to 112.36bn USD, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.8%. Specifically, the animal antibiotic market is currently estimated to be around 5bn USD and will grow to roughly 6.92bn USD by 2032.
Using over 66% of the world’s global antibiotics, the livestock industry presents a major market opportunity. Within the sector, major drivers of growth include both a rise in animal food product demands and increasing zoonotic diseases. Currently, there are three main use cases for antibiotics in the livestock industry; pigs, poultry, and cattle. In pigs, antibiotics are used to prevent post-weaning diarrhoea, a common side effect of weaning young piglets too early. In poultry, antibiotics are mainly used to combat respiratory diseases and general bacterial infections. In cattle, more specifically dairy cows, antibiotics are infused into the udder to prevent mastitis in what is known as “Dry Cow Therapy”, which occurs routinely in over 85% of non-organic dairy farms.
In part due to public resistance to antibiotic use, there has been a marked decrease in the amount of antibiotics used in the livestock industry in certain parts of the world. The United Kingdom, for example, has banned the use of prophylactic antibiotics being used as growth promoters. While at first glance this decrease in antibiotic use may appear to be a restraint factor, it in fact presents a market opportunity. As a novel antimicrobial, OneRing can help fill a gap in the livestock supply chain, making it easier for farmers to limit their antibiotic use by providing them with a viable and efficacious alternative.
In the companion animal industry, the increase in companion animal population presents an opportunity for wider use of OneRing. Looking especially at emerging markets, such as China, Brazil, India and Mexico, there continues to be a significant increase in companion animals. In India, for example, 600,000 pets are adopted per year. Even in established markets, there continues to be a positive growth trend. The US Dog Population, for instance, rose from 77.8 million in 2014 to 89.4 million in 2017.
Turning our attention to the Healthcare Industry, as of 2024, the global antibiotics market is estimated to be worth 53.90 billion USD. Growing at a CAGR of 5.3%, by 2033, the market is expected to be worth 85.8 billion USD. This potential growth will likely be due to an increase in the prevalence of infectious diseases, paired with an ageing population. Currently, the Asia / Pacific region holds the highest market share of around 45%, compared to a European market share of around 20% or a North American market share of roughly 29%. In order to better understand which market could be most beneficial to penetrate first, we compared the current antibiotic market size of both the United Kingdom and the United States, discovering the current UK market is worth 1.32 billion USD, while the current US market is worth 19.2 billion USD.
Gaining a better understanding of the current antimicrobial landscape and key stakeholders within the field, we have been empowered to continue working towards a future free from the threats of AMR. Through the further development of OneRing, we hope to one day commercialise our solution, providing us the opportunity to effect impactful global change as we help combat the AMR crisis.
In order to demonstrate the requirement for a novel therapeutic method to be developed in addition to the advent of new antibiotics, we have conducted a computational model for AMR deaths by year. According to the data obtained by WHO, it is estimated that in 2019, there were 4.95 million AMR-related deaths worldwide. In addition, according to WHO estimates, a new antibiotic in a novel class can be successful with a probability of 1/30. Given these statistics, whose citations are included in the model PDF document, we tried to see how AMR deaths would change by year, as a function of year and the advent of new antibiotics. For this purpose, we produced 5 graphs with varying dpa (death reduction per antibiotic) variables.
Even in the most optimistic case of 50% death reduction per new antibiotic, it is seen that around 6,000,000 people worldwide woould continue to die in 2050. Furthermore, it is more realistic to assume that not every year a new antibiotic from a previously-undiscovered class can be developed, given that this has been levelling off in the current century. In conclusion, it is clear that AMR is a significant threat to human health that must be dealt with attention from the scientific community. Our model predicts that even in the most optimistic case of antibiotic success, pathogens will likely continue to develop resistance to the antibiotics. This model highlights the importance of finding new treatment methods, such as through modulating conjugation in bacteria, to combat the formidable problem of AMR.
To study public awareness and perceptions on AMR, we have crafted a short questionnaire of 13 questions, suitable for anyone - ranging from those who have never heard of AMR to those who work in the field. The form has been answered by more than 100 people of varying age and education levels, and the results indicate that the public reached as part of our endeavours is mostly optimistic about our solution. The detailed results of the questions can be found below.
Almost all respondents had at least some surface knowledge about AMR, but less than a quarter of them knew about the actual causes and effects of AMR. Respondents seemed to be quite aware of the causes of AMR. In the questionnaire, respondents were provided with a range of actual and fabricated causes of AMR development, of which on average about 65% of respondents correctly selected the 5 fundamental causes. Yet, respondents performed more poorly on their understanding of the effects of AMR. Only 23 out of 100 respondents correctly responded that 5 million deaths are associated with AMR annually. 70% of respondents underestimated the annual attributable deaths caused by AMR. Despite the largely incorrect perception of the impact of AMR on human life, the large majority of respondents (92%) indicated that they would support a shift of research focus into AMR, even if it meant diverting resources from other fields. This indicated to us that whilst respondents were somewhat aware of the negative impacts of AMR and felt that it was a pressing problem, many of them weren’t conscious of the magnitude of the problem.
In the questionnaire, we also investigated the public’s receptiveness towards the potential applications of the OneRing system. Nearly half of all respondents were open to consuming OneRing as a probiotic supplement, while the other half was receptive, but needed further trials and clinical data before they would consume it. Only a small minority (2%) was completely unreceptive to the idea of consuming a potential probiotic product containing OneRing. Very similar results when asked about consuming animal products - such as meat and dairy - that were produced with the help of OneRing.
Our methodology & detailed results can be found on the following document:
We were honoured to participate in the poster exhibition at the department of biochemistry during the Oxford University open doors days. We were able to attract attention of visitors by sharing our progress on the project. Many visitors also went to answer our questionnaire on the AMR problem which allowed as to collect additional data.
Moreover, we collaborated with Sarah Jinks - the Head of Biology at St.Clare’s Oxford IB School to deliver a presentation to students and staff. We raised awareness on the AMR problem, presented details of our project, explained basic biochemical techniques, and shared our experience with young science students at St. Clare’s.