Based on the background, challenges associated with coffee ground disposal , and the potential for utilizing synthetic biology to produce 7-MX, a mathematical model can be constructed to evaluate the future market trends of the project. This model will encompass factors such as coffee ground yield, caffeine extraction efficiency, 7-MX production volume, market demand, and price fluctuations, and allowfor a preliminary prediction of future market potential and profitability.^[1][2][3][4]

To facilitate more accurate predictions of future market trends, the following key parameters are introduced:

• S: Global coffee ground yield (unit: 10,000 tons/year), projected to increase by gs% annually.
• Caffeine: Caffeine content in coffee grounds (assumed to be 1.5%).
• Rextraction: Caffeine extraction efficiency (assumed to be 90%).
• Pconversion: Efficiency of converting caffeine to 7-MX (assumed to be 75%).
• Mprice: Market price of 7-MX (USD/g), with the current market price set at 525 USD/g, assuming a yearly price decline of dm%.
• Mcost: Production cost of 7-MX (USD/g), currently assumed to be 200 USD/g, with an annual reduction of rc% due to technological advancements.
• Dmarket: Global market demand for 7-MX (tons), projected to increase by gd% annually.
• r: Discount rate (set at 10%).

The global coffee ground yield S can be estimated using the following formula, assuming a certain annual growth rate gs:

S(t) = S₀ × (1 + g_s)^t

where S₀ represents the current coffee ground yield (6 million tons/year).

The total amount of extracted caffeine is:

C_{caffeinetotal}(t) = S(t) × C_{caffeinetotal} × R_extraction

The yield converted to 7-MX through biosynthetic transformation is:

Y_7-(MX)(t) = C_{caffeinetotal}(t) × P_conversion

The annual market revenue from 7-MX is:

R_total(t) = Y_7-(MX)(t) × M_price(t)

where

M_price(t) = M_price(0) × (1 - d_m)^t

Indicating that the market price decreases year by year.

The total cost of producing 7-MX is:

C_total(t) = Y_7-(MX)(t) × M_cost(t)

where,

M_price(t) = M_price(0) × (1 - d_m)^t

Indicating that, as technology advances, production costs decrease progressively each year.

The annual profit is calculated as total revenue minus total costs:

Π(t) = R_total(t) - C_total(t)

To assess the economic benefits of the project over the coming years, the total profit can be calculated using the Net Present Value (NPV) formula:

Π(t) = R_total(t) - C_total(t)

Where T represents the project duration.

The global market demand for 7-MX,Dmarket , is assumed to grow annually at a rate of gd%.Therefore, the market demand in year t is given by:

D_market(t) = D_market(0) × (1 + g_d)^t

If:

Y_{7 - MX}(t) ≤ D_market(t)

it can be assumed that the entire production of 7-MX will be absorbed by the market. Otherwise, market demand will become a limiting factor for the production and sale of 7-MX.

Future Market Demand Forecast

The market demand for the coming years can be projected using the aforementioned formula. Assuming a forecast period of 10 years, an initial demand of 50 tons, and an annual growth rate of 10%:

Market Demand Calculation

• Initial market demand: D_o = 50 tons.
• Annual growth rate: g_e = 0.10.

The market demand for the next 10 years is calculated based on these parameters.

7. Case Study Calculation

Assume the following initial conditions:

• Global coffee grounds production, S_o = 6 million tons/year, with an annual growth rate of g_s = 2%.
• Caffeine content in coffee grounds, C_affeine = 1.5%, with an extraction efficiency of R_extraction = 90%.
• The market price of 7-MX, M_price(0) = $525 per gram, with an annual price decrease rate of D_m = 5%.
• The production cost of 7-MX, M_cost(0) = $200 per gram, with an annual cost reduction rate of r_c = 3%.
• Market demand for 7-MX, D_market(0) = 50 tons, with an annual growth rate of gd = 10%.

Based on these assumptions, we can project the coffee grounds production, 7-MX output, market revenue, and profit over the next 5 to 10 years to assess the feasibility and economic viability of this project.

8. Graphical Representation and Forecasting

By calculating the annual global coffee grounds production, 7-MX output, market price, and profit, we can illustrate the trends in these variables over time.

The graph above shows the market forecast for coffee grounds processing and 7-MX production over the next 10 years:

• Total revenue (blue line) increases annually. Despite the declining market price of 7-MX, the growth in coffee grounds processing drives revenue expansion.
• Total costs (red line) also rise over time, though the increase is more gradual due to the annual reduction in production costs.
• Total profit (green line) exhibits a healthy upward trend, indicating that as the project scales and production efficiency improves, the profitability of 7-MX production will continue to grow over the coming years.

References:

[1] International Coffee Organization (ICO). (2022). World Coffee Consumption Report. [Online] Available: http://www.ico.org/

[2] Vandeponseele, Alexandre, Micheline Draye, Christine Piot, and Gregory Chatel (2021). Study of Influential Parameters of the Caffeine Extraction from Spent Coffee Grounds: From Brewing Coffee Method to the Waste Treatment Conditions. Clean Technologies 3, no. 2: 335-350. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-023-02544-w\

[3] Getachew, D. G., & Chun, H. (2017). Impact of raw and pre-treated spent coffee grounds on soil properties and plant growth: a mini-review. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 25, 2831–2843. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-023-02544-w

[4] Rocio Campos-Vega, Guadalupe Loarca-Piña, Haydé A. Vergara-Castañeda, B. Dave Oomah, Spent coffee grounds: A review on current research and future prospects,Trends in Food Science & Technology,Volume 45, Issue 1,2015,Pages 24-36,ISSN 0924-2244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2015.04.012