Overview
The Nitrogen Problem
Worldwide, as much as 110 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer is applied to fields[1], much of which leaches into the soil without being absorbed by plants[2], causing environmental problems. In addition, excessive nitrogen fertilization is causing farmers to suffer not only higher costs but also lower crop quality and yields, and immediate action is needed. Our team therefore undertook a project to develop an inexpensive and hassle-free biosensor to help optimize fertilizer application.
Problem Statement
Nitrogen Fertilizers and Excessive Application of Nitrogen Fertilizers
The problems caused by excessive nitrogen fertilizer application are many and varied and often unrecognized.
1, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Although the use of nitrogen fertilizers and GHG emissions may seem unrelated, there is in fact a strong relationship.
The life cycle of nitrogen fertilizer production and distribution can be divided into three stages: production, transportation, and use. When these three items are added together, the total GHG emissions associated with nitrogen fertilizers are 1.13 GtCO This represents 2.1% of all human GHG emissions[3].
Production: The production stage is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for 38.8% of nitrogen fertilizer lifecycle GHG emissions[3].
The production of nitrogen fertilizers occurs primarily through the production of ammonia. Ammonia production uses the "Haber-Bosch process," which requires large amounts of energy, mainly from natural gas. This process emits a large amount of carbon dioxide.
Transportation: The transportation phase is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for 2.6% of the GHG emissions during the life cycle of nitrogen fertilizer[3].
The transportation of fertilizers consumes fossil fuels, which emit CO2 Especially in Japan, where raw materials are imported, CO2 emissions are a major factor during the transportation stage.
Use: Nitrous oxide is mainly emitted during the use phase and accounts for 58.8% of GHG emissions during the life cycle of nitrogen fertilizer[3].
Nitrogen fertilizers applied to farmland are partially decomposed by microorganisms into nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide is a greenhouse gas with 300 times the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide[4], and 662 MtCO2 of GHGs are emitted during the use of nitrogen fertilizers[3]. As shown above, the majority of GHG emissions during the life cycle of nitrogen fertilizers come from nitrous oxide, which is metabolized by soil microorganisms when nitrogen fertilizers are used in excess during the use phase.
Our project will contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions by taking a use-phase approach and controlling excessive use.
2, Reduction in crop quality and yield
Excessive nitrogen drop leads to adverse effects such as growth, delayed maturity, and poor germination. Nutritional growth is prioritized, resulting in the failure to produce flowers and fruits. The agricultural experiment station we spoke with on our website told us that they have seen losses of up to 30% in monetary terms in fields with excess nitrogen. In addition, crops grown in soils with excess nitrogen are more susceptible to aphids, a pest that can cause secondary damage. These effects are estimated to have caused 3 dollar billion in damage in Japan alone[5].
Our project will control nitrogen overload through proper fertilizer application, preventing crop quality and yield loss.
3, Runoff of nitrogen compounds into the environment
Nitrogen runoff from fields contaminates groundwater. There are many technological systems to remove nitrogen from the environment, ranging from chemical to biological, but not many of them have been used in the field due to cost issues. ” The societal cost of nitrogen pollution by agriculture in the EU has been estimated to range from The societal cost of nitrogen pollution by agriculture in the EU has been estimated to range from €35 to €23 billion per year “[6].Reducing the amount of nitrogen leaching into the environment requires dropping nitrogen fertilizers in amounts that plants can use, and sensing nitrogen concentrations is essential to adjust fertilizer application without stunting growth.
Our project will enable fertilizer management through sensing of nitrogen compounds.
Unmet Needs
Human Practice has helped us to identify what are the "unmet needs" that could provide clues to solving the problem.
The Current State of Agriculture
First, let's look at the current state of agriculture.
| tailwind factor | headwind factor | |
|---|---|---|
| In the world | Advances in Smart Agriculture Smart agriculture is a technology that uses IoT, AI, and robotics to improve the efficiency and precision of agricultural operations. This is expected to reduce traditional labor-intensive tasks and increase sustainable productivity. | Restrictions on Nitrogen Fertilizer Use Because excessive use of nitrogen fertilizers leads to increased environmental impact, water pollution, and greenhouse gasses, their use has been restricted in many countries in recent years. There is concern that this restriction may affect agricultural production. |
| Growing demand due to population growth Demand for agricultural products is growing rapidly in line with global population growth. In developing countries in particular, urbanization and rising living standards have led to an increase in food consumption, and investment in areas that aim to stabilize food supplies has increased. | Risks from Extreme Weather Extreme weather events pose significant risks to agriculture, causing fluctuations in yields and reduced crop quality. In particular, droughts, floods, and extreme temperature fluctuations have severely impacted production, causing food supply instability in some regions. | |
| In Japan | Progress in Database Utilization Momentum to advance agriculture through the use of databases and machine learning is growing throughout the country. In fact, this trend is evident as the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries is expected to expand by about 20% from 2024 to 2025, backed by the development of agricultural equipment[7]. | Aging Population and Lack of Bearers In addition to the retirement of farmers due to aging, the decline in the number of new farmers is adding to this problem. Reasons why the next generation is not entering the agricultural sector include the fact that farming is demanding physical labor compared to white-collar occupations and the slow progress of urbanization in rural communities. |
| Soaring Prices of Agricultural Materials The background to soaring material prices is that international conflicts, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have pushed up the prices of fertilizers, feed, and fuel, and the depreciation of the yen has increased the price of imported materials, placing a heavy burden on farming operations. In addition, rising oil prices are driving up the cost of fuel and plastic products such as plastic greenhouses and mulch film, which together are causing an increase in the overall cost of agricultural materials. |
The table in the following table shows the tailwind and headwind factors in agriculture.
Thus, it can be said that in the world, "increasing yields to meet population growth amidst fertilizer restrictions" is required, while in Japan, "cutting costs and adding higher value amidst labor shortages" is required.
Analyzing these issues from the perspective of nitrogen, it is possible to determine what the "unmet needs" are.
If yields are to be increased under conditions where there is an upper limit to the amount of nitrogen that can be applied to the field, it is necessary to know the concentration of available nitrogen in the soil in order to apply the necessary amount of fertilizer at the necessary time. Furthermore, real-time performance is required to respond to ever-changing ration nitrogen concentrations.
To cut costs and add value to crops, it is necessary to improve quality and control pests and diseases without investing in excess materials. To achieve these goals in terms of nitrogen, detailed nitrogen concentration monitoring is required, but highly accurate nitrogen sensing is difficult to implement due to cost and manpower issues. Frequent nitrogen sensing must be made possible from both a cost and manpower perspective.
As described above, there is a need for nitrogen sensing that is "real-time," "light-load," "highly accurate," and "inexpensive.
Examples of possible real-world uses
How will our solution affect farmers?
Quite simply, it will change the way they think. Not a small number of farmers are currently trying to improve their situation by dropping nitrogen fertilizers on their poorly growing crops. However, in some cases, that solution may not be appropriate.
In fact, when nitrogen is applied to a field with excess nitrogen, it can actually stunt the growth of the crop, despite the best intentions[8]. This leads to even more stunted growth and more fertilizer drops. ...... This is a negative spiral. This leads to a negative spiral. It does not grow as it should. At that point, the first step is to check the soil condition. We provide the tools to do so.
We will look at the results our team's solution can bring in concrete monetary terms.
Let's take the example of the tomato farmer we talked to at HP.
As a conclusion, our project will enable the farmer to increase his income by 1.8 times. First, we will analyze the costs. Tomatoes require a lot of fertilizer application, which means that during the fruiting season, we will apply fertilizer once every 1 to 2 weeks[9], for a total of 10 to 15 times. Considering sensing each time fertilizer is applied, the cost is 4,000 dollars. (Considering that the area per greenhouse is 3.6a[10], one machine per greenhouse, and that each farmer cultivates 3.4ha, about 100 machines will be installed per farmer, and since the cost per machine is 2 dollar × 20, the installation cost is 4,000 dollar).
Next, let us consider the benefits. Based on figures estimated by Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japanese horticultural farmers spend 5,333 dollar per year on fertilizer[11] If the amount of fertilizer applied can be reduced by 20% through proper nitrogen sensing, the fertilizer cost can be reduced by 1,066 dollar[11], and the yield and quality can be expected to improve by 20% due to the correction of excess nitrogen, Therefore, the gross income is expected to increase by 27,639 dollar (1,066 + 26,573 = 27,639 dollar).
In addition to the above, assuming that the amount of expenses is 105,200 dollar[11], we can estimate
132,866 dollar ×1.2-(105,200 dollar-1,066 dollar+4,000 dollar)=51,305 dollar
profit is 1.85 times compared to 27,666 dollar before the introduction.
Market Analysis
An attractive solution is meaningless if there is no one who needs it. We analyzed the market size by TAM, SAM, and SOM to determine the potential demand for our solutions.
TAM (Total Addressable Market)
The total addressable market (TAM) in Japan is 929,400 farmers[10], with 3.4 ha of land under cultivation per farmer[10], and each machine senses 3.4 a. Therefore, the TAM is as follows
929,400 management units × 100 machines × annual cartridge cost (2 dollar × 20 times) = 3.7 dollar × 10^9
SAM (Serviceable Available Market)
Given that the number of farming entities in Japan is 929,400, with 3.4 ha of cultivated land per entity, and that the percentage of entities using data-enabled farming is 26%[12], the SAM is,
929,400 management units × 0.26 × 100 machines × annual cartridge cost (2 dollar × 20 times) = 9.7 dollar × 10^8
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
Since the percentage of all farming entities in Japan that frequently perform and utilize soil analysis is 7%[12], the SOM is,
929,400 farmers × 0.07 × 100 machines × annual cartridge cost (2 dollar × 20 times) = 2.6 dollar × 10^8
This figure visualizes TAM, SAM, and SOM.
Competitive Analysis
It is essential to analyze where our services stand in relation to existing players. While it is possible to analyze from various perspectives, as mentioned in "Unmet Needs," the four key factors are "real-time," "light burden," "high accuracy," and "low cost," and we conducted a competitive analysis from these four perspectives.
| Service | Measurement Accuracy | the time required | cost | simplicity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Sensors | ◎ 50～ 0.1mg/100g | 〇 Until results are known 4 hours | 〇 one inning ＄2 | ◎ 4s One-click from app |
| Precision Soil Analysis | ◎ 100～ 0.1mg/100g [13] | × Until the result is known 1 month [14] | △ one inning ＄40～80 [13] | × 4days Soil samples are collected, dried, and then sent to an analysis center |
| EC Sensor | × It is said that there is a correlation between edible nitrogen and EC values. | ◎ Until the result is known tens of seconds | 〇 Initial cost ＄200 [15] | △ 3 minutes × number of rows[16] Dissolve soil sample in water, extract solution, and analyze with sensor |
This table analyzes our competitors and our sensors based on four perspectives.
Our sensor
A testing method in which soil samples are automatically collected, measured, and analyzed by an installed sensor, and the results are output.
The test results focus on two types of ions, nitrate ions and ammonium ions, enabling us to determine the amount and timing of fertilizer application and when to finish fertilizer application. In addition, the enzyme-based sensor system enables highly accurate sensing and supports detailed fertilizer application planning.
The high convenience of receiving results by activating the device from the application supports labor savings.
Precision Soil Analysis
This is a testing method in which soil samples are analyzed by a specialized laboratory. The test results provide detailed numerical values for many items, allowing for comparison with previous data and detailed fertilizer application planning. However, due to the large number of items, it can take up to a month to analyze the results, and the preparation of soil samples is time-consuming, making it difficult to use this service easily.
EC sensor
This is a testing method to determine the nitrate ion concentration and pH in the soil by measuring the anions in the soil. In addition to providing results on the spot and within a short period of time, this method can detect a drop in soil pH due to excessive anion accumulation. However, it has the drawbacks that the sensor itself is expensive and its installation cost is high due to the fact that the values are greatly disturbed by anions other than nitrate ions contained in the soil.
Cost Analysis
Our offer is not limited to measurement alone. We provide all four steps: sampling, measurement, analysis, and advice. In this study, we examined the first two, which are the most significant cost factors.
Collection
For soil sampling, we developed a proprietary device for this project. We have succeeded in reducing the cost of this device by minimizing the complexity of the drive system as much as possible, and have kept the cost down to 80 dollar even at the prototype stage. We expect to be able to reduce the cost of electronic components by 40% by ordering large quantities of components and specializing, which is expected to reduce the cost to 45 dollar.
Metrology
Our device uses one reaction solution cartridge per measurement. With sensing at the shortest possible fertilizer interval, we expect to use the device 20 times per field per season[9], but we aim to keep the price per field at or below the cost of a single precision soil analysis so as not to lose our competitive edge. We estimate that the cost of the cartridge itself can be reduced to 2 dollar per cartridge through mass production.
The initial cost is one-sixth that of an EC sensor, and the cost of measurement is less than one-tenth that of precision soil analysis.
Milestones
Implementing a project in society requires careful planning, and the value of a project increases as meaningful milestones are achieved one by one.
This table summarizes the milestones chronologically.
Potential Future Impacts
Long-term benefits:
Improved water quality: By controlling excessive nitrogen runoff, water quality in rivers, lakes, and oceans will be improved and eutrophication will be prevented. This reduces oxygen deficiency and abnormal algae blooms, thereby protecting aquatic ecosystems.
Promoting sustainable agriculture: Reducing the excessive use of nitrogen fertilizers promotes sustainable use of farmland and improves soil health. This stabilizes future food production and reduces the environmental impact of agriculture.
Climate change mitigation: Reduced use of nitrogen fertilizers reduces the production of nitrogen compounds and emissions of greenhouse gasses (dinitrogen monoxide), which has the effect of slowing the progression of climate change.
Long-term disadvantages:
Increased agricultural costs: the introduction of organic fertilizers and sustainable fertilizer management techniques to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers may increase initial costs and costs for technology acquisition.
Solution: We believe that subsidies from the national and local governments could help alleviate the burden caused by a temporary increase in costs.
Stakeholders
In our project, we visualized our stakeholders through stakeholder mapping and performed an IHP. (See the IHP page for more details.)
This figure shows the stakeholders mapped.
References
[1]Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Supply, Demand Outlook Generally Favorable. DTN Progressive Farmer. Published April 19, 2024. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2023/12/04/global-nitrogen-fertilizer-supply
[2]Yang Y, Tilman D, Jin Z, et al. Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture. Science. 2024;385(6713). doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn3747
[3]Menegat S, Ledo A, Tirado R. Greenhouse gas emissions from global production and use of nitrogen synthetic fertilisers in agriculture. Scientific Reports. 2022;12(1). doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18773-w
[4]Nature Portfolio. Natureasia.com. Published 2024. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.natureasia.com/ja-jp/nature/highlights/105001
[5]（Japanease）2022 Gross Agricultural Output and Agricultural Income (National): Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Maff.go.jp. Published 2024. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.maff.go.jp/j/tokei/kekka_gaiyou/seisan_shotoku/r4_zenkoku/index.html
[6]Gu B, Zhang X, Lam SK, et al. Cost-effective mitigation of nitrogen pollution from global croplands. Nature. 2023;613(7942):77-84. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05481-8
[7]（Japanease）JAcom Agricultural Cooperative Newspaper. Agriculture budget request is 2.7209 trillion yen, up 20%, with a focus on strengthening food security, and new projects to combat bird flu. Agricultural Policy. Published August 31, 2023. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.jacom.or.jp/nousei/news/2023/08/230831-69032.php
[8]1Albornoz F. Crop responses to nitrogen overfertilization: A review. Scientia Horticulturae. 2016;205:79-83. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2016.04.026
[9]（Japanease）Farmers Web Editorial Team. Easy! Fertilizer composition and effects recommended for tomatoes, and how to apply fertilizer. Farmerweb. Published July 9, 2020. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.noukaweb.com/tomato-fertilizer/
[10]（Japanease）Survey of Agricultural Structure in 2023 (as of February 1, 2023): Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Maff.go.jp. Published 2024. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.maff.go.jp/j/tokei/kekka_gaiyou/noukou/r5/index.html
[11]（Japanease）Fertilizer Situation May 2023 Technical Extension Division, Agricultural Produce Bureau. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.maff.go.jp/j/seisan/sien/sizai/s_hiryo/attach/pdf/HiryouMegujiR5-5.pdf
[12]（Japanease）Survey on Attitudes and Intentions toward Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Administration, etc.: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan. Maff.go.jp. Published 2024. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.maff.go.jp/j/finding/mind/index.html
[13]（Japanease）Precision Soil Diagnosis｜Agricultural Consulting and Soil Diagnosis Services - Nougeikanri Co.. Nougeikanri.co.jp. Published 2024. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://nougeikanri.co.jp/analysis/
[14]Blocked. Zennoh.or.jp. Published 2024. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.zennoh.or.jp/operation/hiryou/dojo.html
[15]（Japanease）LAQUAtwin EC-33. Horiba.com. Published September 26, 2024. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.horiba.com/jpn/water-quality/detail/action/show/Product/ec-33b-870/#show-more
[16]（Japanease）keisoku22.com: How to use EC Meter and its principle 《Easy to understand explanation for beginners》 - Measurement.com. Measurement.com - Information that makes measurement fun!. Published October 26, 2022. Accessed October 1, 2024. https://www.sanko-web.co.jp/keisoku/how-to-use-the-ec-meter/